With time ticking down until Christmas, what will the top news stories be on December 24th?
I can already see a story on shopping procrastinators being on the news as well as video of the nearby airport for a story on people travelling.
Look for the usual AAA story about how many people will be traveling by car when we have never been told how the AAA get their stats.
Any other suggestions?
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I don't know about on December 24th, but I know they always do an end of the year roundup of all the famous people who have died during the past year. I have also frequently seen end of the year news stories based on the predictions for the upcoming year from a psychic or whatever.
Not so much on Christmas Eve but during the following week, they usually have a roundup of all the celebrities who have died in the past year. That always makes me feel a little sad and nostalgic (and old!--ha ha!) :D
Thanks for your mention of AAA. I work for AAA and hope to provide the info you were asking about below. BTW, this info is included in AAA's news releases regarding each holiday weekend travel forecast. Those can be found at www.AAA.com/news.
Now to the research. Data for AAA's weekend holiday travel projections are collected through an online survey of over 2,000 adults nationwide, plus an additional 6,500 Americans surveyed from the top 10 states of trip origin in the United States. This information is then provided to the Travel Industry Association's (TIA) Holiday Travel Forecast Model. The model was developed based on consumer travel intentions and TIA’s quarterly travel forecast data. Historical travel volume and other economic data such as GDP, disposable income, employment and travel costs (including fuel prices) are also incorporated into the model. Analysis of the data and the forecasts are done by TIA, which conducts special research for AAA.
I hope this answers any questions you have. This year's Christmas-New Year's travel forecast will be out Wed., Dec. 17, and you can find it first at www.AAA.com/news.
AAA made a mention of how they get their stats here: http://tinyurl.com/5jytps
Mr. Graziani...thank you for the informative post! The research is interesting to say the least. As a Doctorate student in Communications, I am a little surprised at the low of number of people that are surveyed. The fact that 6,500 of your survey population are picked from the top 10 states of trip origin tells me that this information and sample is not very generalizable. If Ohio is not in one of those top 10 states, then only 40 people from my state got surveyed. There's 88 counties in Ohio. That's not a very strong sample.
In 2004, the AAA reported that travel over Christmas and New Year's will be at its "highest level ever." AAA estimates that 62.7 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more from home this holiday, a 3 percent increase from last year’s 60.8 million travelers. To arrive at that number from surveying only 8,500 is very dicey.
To do this kind of travel forecast serves no purpose to me. People will travel whether or not the AAA estimates are high or low.
What might be more valid as a measure of holiday travel increasing or decreasing is publishing travel data AFTER the fact. Did airlines see an increase in flights purchased? Is the number of people on the turnpike up (where applicable)? Did more people rent cars? Ride Greyhound?
I'm glad the AAA will put its information out FIRST on December 17th. I think many people would scratch their heads if they knew that only 6,500 people were surveyed for the holiday gratuitous mention of the AAA on the news.
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